Discussion:
About PERT and Statistical PERT and Monte Carlo simulation
(trop ancien pour répondre)
rami18
2017-07-04 18:53:41 UTC
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Hello.........

Read the following:

About PERT and Statistical PERT and Monte Carlo simulation

Please read carefully the following method of statistical PERT:

https://www.statisticalpert.com/learn-more/

and read this also:

https://www.pluralsight.com/blog/it-ops/statistical-pert-estimates


This method is not efficient, because, first, it doesn't scale
as Monte Carlo simulation, because Monte Carlo simulation will
tell you how much each activity will influence the critical path
before putting the Risk.. so statistical PERT is not scalable in this
regard, because statistical PERT has to put the Risk before knowing how
much each activity will influence the critical path..

So statistical PERT is not efficient as Monte Carlo simulation.

But Monte Carlo simulation can not know efficiently how much Risk
is on the very sensitive parts of activities, because it is difficult
to put a Risk on real world problems, so this is still inefficient. So
this is why i think PERT is still useful as a tool.

So i think i will stay with my PERT library that is still useful.

Here it is:

PERT (The program evaluation and review technique) for Delphi and
Freepascal was updated to version 1.21..

I have just taken a look at the following statistical PERT:

https://www.pluralsight.com/blog/it-ops/statistical-pert-estimates

And i think you don't need it, because i have just added the following
function to my PERT library:

function InvNormalDist(const Mean, StdDev, PVal: Extended; const Less:
Boolean): Extended;

For InvNormalDist(), you pass the best estimate of completion time to
Mean, and you pass the critical path standard deviation to StdDev, and
you will get the length of the critical path of the probability PVal,
and when Less is TRUE, you will obtain a cumulative distribution.

Also my PERT library uses a CPM algorithm that uses Topological sorting
to render CPM a linear-time algorithm for finding the critical path of
the project, so it's fast.

And i have also included a 32 bit and 64 bit windows executables called
PERT32.exe and PERT64.exe (that take the file, with a the file format
that i specified above, as an argument) inside the zip, it is a very
powerful tool, you need to compile CPM.java with compile.bat before
running them.

Now my PERT library is more professional.

You can download the new version 1.21 of my PERT library from:

https://sites.google.com/site/aminer68/pert-the-program-evaluation-and-review-technique-for-delphi-and-freepascal


Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.
Olivier Miakinen
2017-07-04 22:34:35 UTC
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Post by rami18
Hello.........
Encore ? Bon, ok, je mets tout de suite mes filtres à jour.
--
Olivier Miakinen
Benoit
2017-07-05 17:25:48 UTC
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Bonjour,

Pour vous aider, je vais traduire en français ce message.
Post by rami18
Hello.........
Bonjour [suivi d'un problème dû peut-être à l'âge]
Post by rami18
About PERT and Statistical PERT and Monte Carlo simulation
À propos des pertes, des pertes statistiques et la simulation de Monte
Carlo.
[...]

Ce qui suit tente de vous vendre une procédure pour utiliser les
statistiques, qui vous sont défavorables (faut bien qu'ils croûtent les
croupiers), à votre avantage.



Bons jeux,

PS1 Je verrais bien un suivi sur fr.rec.jeux.divers voire fr.rec.oracle,
mais je vous laisse le choix.

PS2 L'accent circonflexe de « croûte » et son utilisation à la place
d'un « s » se retrouve en anglais avec « crust ». Suivi sur
fr.lettres.langue.francaise ou fr.lettres.langue.anglaise ?
--
On s'occupe de l'étiquette qu'une fois les vendanges terminées.
robby
2017-07-06 06:07:35 UTC
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Post by rami18
About PERT and Statistical PERT and Monte Carlo simulation
Rappel de la charte du groupe: ce groupe est *francophone*
--
Fabrice
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